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Published: 25-12-2012, 23:06

Petroleum: Oil Demand


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Petroleum: Reserves and Resources

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Between 1960 and 1972, world consumption of oil increased by one and one-half times, about 7 percent on average per year. In turn, the world’s industries, including transportation and commerce, and individual households became increasingly dependent on oil. In the years immediately following the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and the subsequent shock in 1979, world demand for oil greatly diminished. From 1980 to 2000, the annual growth in world oil demand averaged 0.9 percent.

The average growth in world oil demand for the future is expected to be much greater than in the past. Between 2000 and 2030, oil demand is projected to increase at an annual rate of from1 percent to 1.9 percent.World demand for oil is expected to grow from about 76 million barrels per day in 2000 to between 98 and 138 million barrels per day in 2030. On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the total projected increase in oil consumption between 2004 and 2030, followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for another 27 percent of the increased consumption (Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook, 2007).

The largest increases in oil consumption from 2004 to 2030 are projected to be 7 million barrels per day inNorthAmerica and 15 million barrels per day in Asian countries that do not belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It is projected that non-OECD countries’ oil consumption will continue to grow, driven by strong economic and industrial growth and rapidly expanding transportation use. It is further estimated that the fastest growth in oil consumption will occur in non-OECD Asia, averaging 2.7 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. Non- OECD Asia accounts for 43 percent of the overall increase in world liquids consumption (Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2007).

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